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Reuters/Ilya Namushin LONDON - The argument that Britain's house prices have risen in the past three or four decades due to a supply-demand issue is wrong, a new academic research paper presented to the Royal Economic Society this week suggests. Conventional wisdom in the UK market - particularly in London - is that supply is too low and demand is too high for housing, creating an imbalance which pushes up prices and makes buying a home more difficult.

However, in her new paper, Lancaster University academic Dr. Alisa Yusupova suggests that more than being centered on supply and demand, much of Britain's house price growth in recent decades has been fuelled by speculation and exuberance. "Neither demand-side factors such as household income, mortgage rates and credit availability, or the supply of new houses explain price rises during some of that period," the paper's abstract says.

Yusupova continues: "We find that a comprehensive model of housing that includes demand side factors such as household income, mortgage rates, credit availability, demographics, inflation as well as supply side factors such as supply of new houses relative to the growth in working age population, and regional spillover effects, cannot fully capture house price dynamics in certain periods of the sample.
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